In our current economic paradigm, the power of Black Friday has diminished. Consumers are facing increasing gas, food and gift prices as well as shortages and scarcity (from either supply chain or logistics) in many cases. These shoppers are changing behaviors to meet their needs, which means more planning, earlier shopping, and different channels. Successful retailers will meet their customers where they are – in this case it will require a mindset shift. Explorer Research has been studying holiday trends since 2019, and has seen the changes caused by pandemic, war, inflation, and supply chain shortages. This year, shopper insights are indicating a decentralization of the traditional timelines that typically fuel Black Friday (online or in person) and Cyber Monday.
REDUCED SPENDING
There’s no surprise here. During times of economic hardship, the public has less to spend and is forced to make difficult choices about non-essential purchases. The end-of-year holidays are multifaceted, containing elements like family gatherings, religious services, specific food preparation, and gift giving. The balance of these elements might skew with less emphasis on gifts and more on the experience of family gatherings and meals, or any other combination.
Forbes Magazine notes:
“This year is less about high-ticket, flashy items and more about providing a great experience on the essentials and turning everyday items special.”
There will likely also be a shift toward shared experience. This can manifest in a variety of ways: potluck style family dinners, video and board games that can be played in groups, family travel, and more. Any product or service whose experience can be shared presents as an immediate value to shoppers in inflationary times.
INCREASED E-COMMERCE
It could be a carryover from the fear of the lockdown, or it could be the byproduct of an increasingly tech-savvy demographic, but online shopping is on the rise. A recent study from AdAge found that only 21% of respondents planned to shop in-store this year, saying:
“Shoppers also seem to be reeling from the “isolation effects” of the pandemic as more than half (60%) prefer online shopping because they want to avoid crowds of people.”
The importance of a strong e-commerce presence continues to be significant, but it’s not always all-or-nothing for shoppers. In our 2021 Holiday Retrospective from last year, we found that respondents acquired slightly more than half of their total holiday purchases online. The importance of in-person shopping is still irreplaceable, especially when facets like tactility or scent are in play. We also can’t forget about the 2 extra emergency trips to the store that are required on Thanksgiving when shoppers unexpectedly run out of butter or cream of mushroom soup!
EARLY AND DISPERSED SHOPPING
We all know someone who has their holiday shopping complete in July, but the trend of shopping earlier has become increasingly prevalent over the past several years. It doesn’t take many tales of empty store shelves during holiday gift-buying sprees to motivate shoppers collectively toward action. 79% of respondents in our annual study said they were concerned about how the supply chain would impact their holiday shopping. To counteract these concerns, shoppers are beginning their shopping process earlier, but not all in one self-contained session.
According to the National Retail Federation, “Consumer behavior has shifted in recent years, with many consumers preferring to spread their shopping out over the entire season.”
Black Friday isn’t going anywhere – but it will be different this year, and likely for a while longer. The combination of multiple global economic circumstances is the primary force behind these changes in shopper behavior, and those cannot all be solved quickly. It’s important to remember that through all of these changes, there are opportunities to better understand, anticipate, and meet customers in the realities they’re facing.
